MOSCOW, April 28, 2004 – I wrote my first letter to the editor of the Moscow Times yesterday – maybe my first letter-to-the-editor ever, since for most of my life, I was the editor.
Anyway, it went like this:
Editor,
I read the Moscow Times daily and as an ex-pat American journalist am generally impressed by both the breadth and objectivity of your coverage.
However, I am perplexed by your consistent failure to cover one of the most significant developing stories in history: And that is the current controversy over what is being alluded to as “peak oil”; that is, the time at which the maximum daily production of petroleum will have been reached and the irreversible reduction of oil availability will have begun.
That moment is historically important, because when it occurs – if it hasn’t already – it will signal the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. Our contemporary civilization rests squarely on the availability of cheap, abundant petroleum that first appeared in 1859 and sparked the remarkable spike of technology and physical abundance that for industrialized nations has characterized the last 75 years.
That spike has occurred in the shape of a bell curve; and when the peak of that curve is reached, so geologists tell us, the down side of the curve will be steeper and sharper and will take us back to the pre-oil level of existence significantly faster than the up-curve brought us.
I for one would like to dismiss this as a “sky-is-falling” scatological warning of a bunch of religious crackpots. But if they are crackpots, they aren’t religious, and they come with some pretty impressive credentials.
Michael Meacher, UK Minister of the Environment from 1997 to 2003, wrote recently in the Financial Times that unless we acknowledge and address the problem immediately, "civilization will confront the most acute and no doubt most violent upheaval in recent history."
Yves Cochet, a delegate from Paris to the National Assembly and former French Land and Environment Minister, similarly warned that “the oil shock that promises to strike before the end of the decade” will dwarf the geopolitically inspired oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.
“What is at stake this time is not geopolitical, but geological,” he said. “Today, it is the wells themselves that are declining. Even if the United States succeeded in imposing its hegemony on all the oilfields in the world (outside of Russia), their army and their technology will not be able to prevail against the coming depletion of conventional oil.
“Since the price will soon reach $ 100 a barrel,” Cochet concluded, “this will no longer be a simple oil shock -- it will be the end of the world as we know it.”
Richard Heinberg, professor of Culture, Ecology and Sustainable Community of the New College of California and author of TheParty's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies, has warned that “the peak is likely not that far off. No one is absolutely sure, because it is impossible to determine exactly how much oil is yet to be discovered. But the best guesses are that we're only a few years away from the global oil production peak.”
And when that peak is reached? “Every year thereafter we will be unable to find and pump more oil. If the demand continues at the present rate or grows, the supply will be inadequate. And that will have tremendous economic implications for the whole world….Our whole industrial way of life is largely based on petroleum. So either we have to find other energy sources to make up for what we lose from petroleum as it begins to run out, or else we will go into permanent economic decline with vast implications for the economy, food production, transportation, and so on.”
Heinberg notes that before we became dependent on oil, the earth sustained a population of about 2 billion. Now we are at 6 billion because of the “artificial carrying capacity” oil has given us. Many conjecture that taking away the oil will also of necessity take away 4 billion people. If that’s true, we are talking about erasing 4 billion people over the next 75 years!
David Goodstein, physicist, vice-provost at the California Institute of Technology, and author of the recently published Out of Gas, conjectured in a recent TV interview that the oil peak may come as early as this year (“it could possibly be in the next decade, but I think that’s about as far as you can push it”). When asked, “Is there a silver lining?” Goldstein replied, “I really don’t think so.”
Bush administration advisor and world-respected geologist Matthew Simmons calls the peak oil issue "the world's most serious question," adding that the peak may be imminent. Asked about making massive investments in alternative energies to head off the crash, he replied, “I’m afraid it’s too late.”
Richard Duncan of the Institute on Energy and Man in Seattle, WA, has been researching the problem for some 30 years. He warns that the end of the downward slide of the bell curve will land us literally back in the Stone Age.
The silence of the U.S. mass media on this unnerving issue has been and continues to be deafening. Except for occasional reviews of some of the above-mentioned books, there has been no coverage of the issue and no reporting of the developing dialog. I would expect this from the Russian mass media, since it would not be in the Kremlin’s interest to air the issue; and from the flaccid and impotent American press, inasmuch as 75% of all newspapers, TV, and radio are owned by five companies, each of which is heavily invested in the energy industry and has an enormous amount to lose if publicizing it should precipitate a market drop, an economic crisis, and worldwide chaos.
Although I know you are owned by a media conglomerate, I expect more of the Moscow Times. I would expect you to at least acknowledge that some eminent scientists believe there is a problem, which in and of itself renders it worth covering as a controversial developing issue.
If astrolonomers were to announce that a massive meteor was headed toward earth with the ability to destroy civilization as we know it, there would be nothing else in the headlines. It seems to me that when geologists, physicists and other scientists – including M.K. Hubbert, Kenneth Deffeyes, Howard Odum, Colin Campbell, those cited above, and others -- have warned or are warning that the oil peak is imminent and that unless drastic world-wide measures are taken by every industrialized nation, it will mean the end of civilization as we know it, this is an issue that is deserving of at least an occasional mention.
It will be interesting to see the response. The first test will be if they even print it (they didn’t). The second will be what they do about it if they do print it.
The dearth of sperm for Yegor seems to be over! Last night he came for the first time in months. So his prostate problem seems to be cured – or nearly so. It has been very frustrating: His cock hasn’t been responding at all to my ministrations. And if it did manage to get up, it
сouldn’t stay up.
“He doesn’t love me,” I wailed silently. And then he explained his problem. On his visit to Nadezhda Gavrinolovna, she scanned and pried and poked unmercifully and concluded he had a prostate infection, which now seems cured – or nearly so.
Nadezhda Gavrinolovna called yesterday: “Is your translator there?” I turned the phone over to Yegor. My insurance claim has been denied, she said, and as a result, she and the others she referred me to aren’t getting paid for their services. I called Rodney, the director of English First, a sort of pal
and confidante as well as boss. “Send me an e-mail and explain what’s happened,” he said.
So now another waiting game, and then how much is that going to take out of my planned savings? Blin!
The weekend with Seryozh was interesting and fun but I still can’t figure out exactly what our relationship is. He arrived Friday evening and it was a repeat of the weekend before: I went to bed about midnight and he came to bed sometime later. This time he again said, “I don’t want to have
sex; I just want to sleep. I’m really tired. So I didn’t try to seduce him – then -- but we hugged and kissed and I slept with my arms around him.
On Saturday morning when I woke up about 7:00 I started groping for the giant. Didn’t take me long to find it and didn’t take it long to get steel-hard in my hand. He rolled over on his back and I pulled his shorts off and played and sucked and jerked a little. The pre-cum was flowing profusely.
I released my hold and moved my head up to the pillow and he rolled over on his side with his dick towards me. I didn’t know what message he was trying to send me, but I concluded he didn’t want to come, so I hugged and kissed him and got up to do my crossword puzzle. But three minutes later there he was in the kitchen!
He was sweet and friendly and loving, and after my morning student and my friend Boris left, Seryozh and I wound up on the bed again – this time fully clothed and with the bed made. We went into a clinch and hugged each other tightly and French-kissed and chatted – about our tentative plans for a trip together to Amsterdam and other things, and generally laughed and
joked a lot.
As we embraced I could feel his poker stiff rod, and when he rolled over on his back, I unzipped his pants and pulled it out. “I want to kiss it,” I said. “Go ahead,” he smiled invitingly, and I was soon sucking pre-cum again.
“Time to put it away,” he said after a few minutes. He said he had to go, but was planning to return that evening. However, after receiving a phone call, he apologized, but announced he had to meet someone else that night.
Our relationship seems to be relaxed and loving, and he seems to enjoy being seduced, though orgasms may not be easy for him if I don’t turn him on sexually. I can’t tell how sincere it is. Anyway, I’m enjoying whatever relationship there is, and we’ll see how it develops.
In the meantime, Sasha dropped in Monday night and spent the night, and we again had warm and loving sex. He’s either really horny or he really loves me, because he comes really quickly, and often in my mouth, without my hands even touching his dick.
It’s nice to know that oil isn’t the only think that’s peaking.
See also related pages:
Chapt. #55 - Lose a few (centimeters), gain a few (tons)
